Between the AI boom and fears of a bubble: what really lies ahead for the economy in 2026–2030
AI as infrastructure. And as a trap
Wood suggests viewing artificial intelligence in the same way that the internet was once viewed: as infrastructure, rather than hype. She estimates that capital expenditure on technology will rise to 12 per cent of GDP, whilst real GDP growth will accelerate to 7 per cent by 2030. On the other hand, Drakenmiller emphasises that anything related to AI could become a potential trap for investors: an idea that is too obvious ceases to be a source of exceptional returns. A significant part of the AI story is already factored into company valuations, and this limits the potential for new investments.
Wood believes that AI does not destroy jobs, but rather redistributes them, creating new opportunities for entrepreneurship. But Drakenmiller views this through the prism of market behaviour and investment opportunities, which he does not see.
In other words, AI may be both the most important trend of the decade - and an overrated topic in the short term.
Wood suggests viewing artificial intelligence in the same way that the internet was once viewed: as infrastructure, rather than hype. She estimates that capital expenditure on technology will rise to 12 per cent of GDP, whilst real GDP growth will accelerate to 7 per cent by 2030. On the other hand, Drakenmiller emphasises that anything related to AI could become a potential trap for investors: an idea that is too obvious ceases to be a source of exceptional returns. A significant part of the AI story is already factored into company valuations, and this limits the potential for new investments.
Wood believes that AI does not destroy jobs, but rather redistributes them, creating new opportunities for entrepreneurship. But Drakenmiller views this through the prism of market behaviour and investment opportunities, which he does not see.
In other words, AI may be both the most important trend of the decade - and an overrated topic in the short term.
Investment portfolios. The dollar, Bitcoin and gold
The dollar, Bitcoin and gold are three assets where the divergence between Wood and Drakenmiller is particularly striking.
Wood believes that Bitcoin’s role is yet to come. Unlike physical gold, the supply of Bitcoin is mathematically capped at 21 million units. When the price of gold rises, miners increase production. With Bitcoin, this is impossible. Stablecoins have already surpassed $300 billion, whilst the tokenisation of assets has tripled over the past year to $19 billion - and Wood forecasts a figure of $11 trillion.
Interestingly, there is no Bitcoin in Drakenmiller’s portfolio - though there is gold, but only as a ‘geopolitical hedge’. He is betting against the dollar and bonds, and believes that the dollar is ‘at the top of its historical range in terms of purchasing power, and global investors are overloaded with dollar-denominated assets’. For the past three years, his investment portfolio has been built around AI, but today he is investing in ‘unoverheated markets’, such as a pharmaceutical company.
Wood’s portfolio is a concentrated bet on innovation. ARKK’s top holdings include Tesla, Coinbase, Roku, Palantir, Shopify, Robinhood, CRISPR and Tempus AI. Almost all are based in the US, and almost all are in the technology sector. Drakenmiller, on the other hand, builds a matrix comprising different asset classes, currencies and geographies.
The dollar, Bitcoin and gold are three assets where the divergence between Wood and Drakenmiller is particularly striking.
Wood believes that Bitcoin’s role is yet to come. Unlike physical gold, the supply of Bitcoin is mathematically capped at 21 million units. When the price of gold rises, miners increase production. With Bitcoin, this is impossible. Stablecoins have already surpassed $300 billion, whilst the tokenisation of assets has tripled over the past year to $19 billion - and Wood forecasts a figure of $11 trillion.
Interestingly, there is no Bitcoin in Drakenmiller’s portfolio - though there is gold, but only as a ‘geopolitical hedge’. He is betting against the dollar and bonds, and believes that the dollar is ‘at the top of its historical range in terms of purchasing power, and global investors are overloaded with dollar-denominated assets’. For the past three years, his investment portfolio has been built around AI, but today he is investing in ‘unoverheated markets’, such as a pharmaceutical company.
Wood’s portfolio is a concentrated bet on innovation. ARKK’s top holdings include Tesla, Coinbase, Roku, Palantir, Shopify, Robinhood, CRISPR and Tempus AI. Almost all are based in the US, and almost all are in the technology sector. Drakenmiller, on the other hand, builds a matrix comprising different asset classes, currencies and geographies.
Where and how should you invest your money in 2026? Eifos Hub invites readers to explore the views of two investors who are hardly likely to be accused of incompetence. Their answers are, at times, contradictory, yet complementary. One speaks of the dawn of a new economic era. The other argues that
Cathie Wood, who predicted the rise and exponential growth of Tesla, the Bitcoin boom and the growth of companies in the field of genetic engineering, became widely known in 2020–2021 thanks to her aggressive bets on Tesla, Roku and Zoom, and her ‘keep buying on dips’ philosophy. Today, in her view, we are witnessing a rare moment in history when several platforms at once - from AI to biotechnology and energy - are beginning to reinforce one another.
Stanley Druckenmiller - one of the most successful macro investors - questions not what Wood says, but the investment value of new technologies. He believes that macro forecasts are obsolete; markets do not profit from what is obvious, but from what is not yet reflected in the price. And ‘large-scale disruptions and changes lie ahead’.
Cathie Wood, who predicted the rise and exponential growth of Tesla, the Bitcoin boom and the growth of companies in the field of genetic engineering, became widely known in 2020–2021 thanks to her aggressive bets on Tesla, Roku and Zoom, and her ‘keep buying on dips’ philosophy. Today, in her view, we are witnessing a rare moment in history when several platforms at once - from AI to biotechnology and energy - are beginning to reinforce one another.
Stanley Druckenmiller - one of the most successful macro investors - questions not what Wood says, but the investment value of new technologies. He believes that macro forecasts are obsolete; markets do not profit from what is obvious, but from what is not yet reflected in the price. And ‘large-scale disruptions and changes lie ahead’.
Five platforms that are changing everything at once
Wood identifies five technological platforms that are developing simultaneously: AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain and multi-omics. Their convergence could trigger a ‘great acceleration’: AI is speeding up the development of new medicines, robotics is reshaping logistics, and blockchain is driving the financial sector forward.
Drakenmiller partly agrees with this. He himself has profited from Nvidia and Palantir, and is now placing a major bet on biotech, believing that AI is best applied in medicine and diagnostics. But he does not buy ‘everything in sight’. His approach is to seek out specific companies where these changes are not yet reflected in the share price.
A bubble or the beginning?
According to Drakenmiller, the main risk in 2026 is not inflation or politics, but bubbles. He observes that major economic problems almost always begin with bubbles in the asset markets. “I have never seen poor economic performance without preceding bubbles. The Great Depression, 2008 - they were all preceded by bubbles. We’re not at the peak. But we’re not at the beginning either.”
Wood acknowledges volatility, but sees it as a natural part of the innovation cycle. She describes graphics processing units as the fibre-optic cables of our time. The dot-com bubble wiped out capital - but the fibre-optic cables laid during those years became the foundation for everything that followed. Amazon lost 90 per cent of its value - and grew tenfold. The problem wasn’t the vision, but the timing. Even if there are fluctuations, the infrastructure will remain.
A strategy straddling two approaches
These two interviews clearly illustrate the paradox that defines the investment landscape of 2026.
On the one hand, technology is indeed transforming the economy faster than expected. On the other, it is precisely this obviousness that reduces the potential for returns. The more investors believe in the trend, the higher the entry price.
Wood’s and Drakenmiller’s views do not contradict but rather complement one another. The former provides a clear picture of where the economy is heading. The latter shows how to profit from this without falling into the trap of overvaluation. Investors will need to think in two modes simultaneously. On the one hand, they must recognise long-term technological shifts and ensure they do not miss them. On the other, they must critically assess market realities and remember that even the most obvious trends do not guarantee a return.
Eifos Hub helps you diversify your assets and provides additional financial flexibility
Wood identifies five technological platforms that are developing simultaneously: AI, robotics, energy storage, blockchain and multi-omics. Their convergence could trigger a ‘great acceleration’: AI is speeding up the development of new medicines, robotics is reshaping logistics, and blockchain is driving the financial sector forward.
Drakenmiller partly agrees with this. He himself has profited from Nvidia and Palantir, and is now placing a major bet on biotech, believing that AI is best applied in medicine and diagnostics. But he does not buy ‘everything in sight’. His approach is to seek out specific companies where these changes are not yet reflected in the share price.
A bubble or the beginning?
According to Drakenmiller, the main risk in 2026 is not inflation or politics, but bubbles. He observes that major economic problems almost always begin with bubbles in the asset markets. “I have never seen poor economic performance without preceding bubbles. The Great Depression, 2008 - they were all preceded by bubbles. We’re not at the peak. But we’re not at the beginning either.”
Wood acknowledges volatility, but sees it as a natural part of the innovation cycle. She describes graphics processing units as the fibre-optic cables of our time. The dot-com bubble wiped out capital - but the fibre-optic cables laid during those years became the foundation for everything that followed. Amazon lost 90 per cent of its value - and grew tenfold. The problem wasn’t the vision, but the timing. Even if there are fluctuations, the infrastructure will remain.
A strategy straddling two approaches
These two interviews clearly illustrate the paradox that defines the investment landscape of 2026.
On the one hand, technology is indeed transforming the economy faster than expected. On the other, it is precisely this obviousness that reduces the potential for returns. The more investors believe in the trend, the higher the entry price.
Wood’s and Drakenmiller’s views do not contradict but rather complement one another. The former provides a clear picture of where the economy is heading. The latter shows how to profit from this without falling into the trap of overvaluation. Investors will need to think in two modes simultaneously. On the one hand, they must recognise long-term technological shifts and ensure they do not miss them. On the other, they must critically assess market realities and remember that even the most obvious trends do not guarantee a return.
Eifos Hub helps you diversify your assets and provides additional financial flexibility
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